Man, he just knows where the jugular is with everyone. I will contend that virtually none of his policies are good for me, or for most of America, but he’s a far better politician than I ever would have expected.
Yes, he very well could have won the GOP nomination with his defense of New York Values, but the way he’s run his campaign on the whole has been as gold as his giant hotel in Las Vegas. He found the underbelly of his constituency: Old racist white men. Through every comment about deporting illegal aliens, Muslims, of building a giant wall around the southern border (and having Mexico pay for it), his poll numbers have gone up. I’m beginning to doubt there is anything Donald Trump could say that would adversely affect his numbers.
In a completely winnable field where the main competition comes from Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, two weak GOP candidates, it is Trump’s nomination to lose.
According to Bovada, The Donald is currently a -230 favorite to be the Republican nominee — meaning you would have to bet $230 to win 100 — and the first underdog (+190) to Hillary Clinton (even money) to be the next president.
Recently, in a squabble with Megyn Kelley, whom Trump claims is biased against him, the real estate billionaire doubled down on himself by boycotting FOX News’ debate. In an attempt to win the Iowa caucus, Trump has simultaneously engaged with FOX News in a game of chicken. And what’s horrifying is he may have already won.
I used to have real contempt for Donald Trump, but I’m starting to think it was misplaced. It’s up for debate how much of the shit that comes out of his mouth he actually believes — my older brother thinks it’s genuine, while I think it’s mostly pandering to his base — but what isn’t in question is just how weak of a field he’s up against. Only in the GOP, which is on the brink of utter collapse, could Trump have a chance. He is the product of a perfect political storm.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable, right now, to put money on Trump to win all of the New Hampshire Republican primary (-600), the Iowa Caucus (-400) and the Republican nomination (-230). I just wouldn’t put my own money on him, because those are bad prices for such a volatile candidate. Plus, it would make me feel dirty.
Eventually, I think the Republican race comes down to Trump vs. Marco Rubio, who should pick up support once the Jeb Bushes and Chris Christies of the world drop out. Can Donald Trump last another 2-3 months without saying something or doing something that derails his campaign? The self-destruction level is high on that one.
But this is also something people, like me, have been anticipating for a while now, and nothing has happened. Thus far he’s attacked one significant minority group (hispanics, who occupied 8.9% of the vote in the last election), and completely alienated Muslims from even considering the liberal opposition, and all it’s done is propel him to the top of GOP contention.
Since he has such a small chance of actually winning a general election, I don’t mind Trump as much as, say, a few months ago when he was ascending.
Donald Trump is a good politician with some scary/bad ideas, but he hasn’t taught us anything about politics or stupid ideas. All we have learned is how many people feel the same way as he does, with the same racist, bigoted belief system.