Last week ATS: 1-3
Overall ATS: 28-28-3
1. Miami Dolphins (+3) at Buffalo Bills
To me, Buffalo should either be a 7-point favorite or a 3-point underdog. Either Josh Allen is playing and the Bills are going full strength to get the #2 seed in the AFC, or Allen and a bunch of starters are resting. Either way, the Dolphins will be playing at maximum motivation because the only way for them to control their playoff destiny is by winning.
This line suggests that Buffalo is going to play hard for some undetermined amount of time, look up at the scoreboard to see that Pittsburgh is getting killed by the Browns — thus securing the #2 spot for the Bills — and call off the dogs. So give me Miami +3, and give me Miami on the moneyline.
Score prediction: Dolphins 24, Bills 16
2. Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Something weird tells me the Raiders, who began the season 6-3 and is the only team that can say they beat the Chiefs, is falling off the tracks. I can’t shake the feeling that there is some extreme Jon Gruden fatigue with Las Vegas, and could a blowout loss in Week 17 get rumors swirling that the Raiders are in the market for a new coach?
Score prediction: Broncos 31, Raiders 17
3. Baltimore Ravens (-13) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are a freight train looking as good and as powerful as ever. Who in the AFC wants a piece of them right now? I don’t know how deep they are going in the playoffs, but I feel pretty good about them being able to blow out bad teams.
Score prediction: Ravens 37, Bengals 13
4. Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 14-1 and have nothing to play for.
Score prediction: Chargers 28, Chiefs 17