Picking football games (against the spread) in review, volume vii

Let’s get to it, shall we:

  1. Broncos (+8) over Eagles

Actual score: Eagles 51, Broncos 23

Outcome: Loss

2. Giants (+4) over Rams

Actual score: Rams 51, Giants 17

Outcome: Loss

3. Bucs (+7) over Saints

Actual score: Saints 30, Bucs 10

Outcome: Loss

4. Panthers (+2) over Falcons

Actual score: Panthers 20, Falcons 17

Outcome: Win

5. Titans (-3.5) over Ravens

Actual score: Titans 23, Ravens 20

Outcome: Loss

6. Bengals (+6) over Jaguars

Actual score: Jaguars 23, Bengals 7

Outcome: Loss

7. Seahawks (-7.5) over Redskins

Actual score: Redskins 17, Seahawks 14

Outcome: Loss

8. Cowboys (-2) over Chiefs

Actual score: Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17

Outcome: Win

9. Raiders (-3) over Dolphins

Actual score: Raiders 27, Dolphins 24

Outcome: Push

10. Lions (-3) over Packers

Actual score: Lions 30, Packers 17

Outcome: Win

Volume vii record: 3-6-1

Overall record: 37-30-3

This was a tough weekend in the Eric house. My beloved #13 Virginia Tech was in a Pick ‘Em on the road against #10 Miami (FL), and took a convincing 28-10 beatdown. On Sunday, my Kansas City Chiefs — who were also in a Pick ‘Em when it was thought Ezekiel Elliot wouldn’t play (the line was back to Cowboys -2 once he was reinstated) — took a 28-17 loss in Dallas.

Both games were essentially coin-flips according to Vegas, and neither was all that competitive. My favorite teams were on the losing side of both contests.

To add insult to injury, Sunday was also the first time I’ve had to leave early from work in the almost four years I’ve been a dealer. Around noon I got all light-headed on the craps table, felt like I was going to pass out. My legs were weak and I had this extreme nausea.

After a half-hour trying to convince myself I could fight through it, I told the box person that she needed to get me off the game, so I got tapped out and went to see the shift manager. I sat around the employee dining area watching TV for about a half hour, in an attempt to recover, but nothing changed. I couldn’t put down any food, and still felt like shit. I went back out to the floor and told my shift I couldn’t make it, so he sent me home.

Anyway, I hate punking out. But shit happens.

This week in the NFL was a colossal failure as far as picking games. My whole logic, that the desperate teams would cover the spread against the better teams who didn’t need a win as badly, was totally fucking off. Every underdog I chose, with the exception of the Panthers (who were playing at home), lost, and even the Seahawks (a 7.5-point favorite) lost. The team they lost to was, of course, the Redskins, who happen to be the squad I said I wouldn’t pick again this year. I am awesome at this.

So that strategy failed, which doesn’t bode well for my feelings in weeks moving forward. After a hot start, I have succumbed to an 11-16-3 record the last three weeks, good for a less than optimal 40.7 winning percentage. Can it get much worse than this? Yes, yes it can. Does that mean I have to be happy about it?

In the real world, in the real betting world, I wouldn’t be spreading my money out over 10 games. There are generally 2-3 that stand out, that I have a better feeling about. And so those would be the games I’d pick in a moneyline parlay, or individually against the spread. The last few weeks have been lacking as far as surefire bets (if such a thing even exists), and as a results my win percentage has suffered.

Anyway, this is why I have stayed away from betting on football this year… at least for the most part. Retaining money is something I have been striving for, which was the whole point of starting my Roth IRA account. The odds of winning by saving money is dramatically better than gambling on anything, but especially sports. As I’m slowly realizing.