Some numbers heading into the Nevada caucuses

  • Per Bovada, Hillary Clinton is a small favorite (-150) to defeat Bernie Sanders (+110) in the Nevada Caucus. Vegas isn’t the end-all as far as these things go, but they give you a pretty good benchmark of what to expect.
  • Caucuses are difficult to predict. But as a recent example, Hillary was the betting favorite during the Iowa Caucuses at 5/12 (bet $100 to win $42), while Bernie was a 9/5 underdog (bet $100 to win $180). With the enormous gap the Sanders campaign has made up in Nevada over the last few weeks, at worst it figures to be a nail-biter on Saturday. I’m going to roll with the underdog Sanders for the win, if for nothing else that Hillary isn’t bringing in a reasonable return on a veritable coin-flip.
  • According to Thursday’s Fox News Poll, for the first time Bernie Sanders holds a national lead over Hillary Clinton. Per the poll Clinton led 49%-37% as recently as last month, with Sanders making up a net of 15%. Taking into account the small sample size of Democratic primary voters, it is nonetheless encouraging that the momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire doesn’t appear to have stagnated.
  • Meanwhile, amid speculation of discontent within the Clinton camp and among her big money donors, per the poll Clinton has lost 5% of support over the last month. This would be less troubling if Bernie wasn’t so rapidly making up ground within the Democratic electorate, as his success will only snowball into more support from his many individual donors.
  • Momentum itself doesn’t mean a lot in politics unless we consider the financial implications. So long as Sanders has a real chance in this, he won’t run out of money. Which is a dangerous reality that’s setting in for the Clinton campaign.
  • It’s no wonder why there is drama on the establishment side of the Democratic party. We’re only about to enter the 3rd state of real, actual voting, and yet I can’t quite escape the feeling that this race should have been over a long time ago. At least from the Clinton’s perspective. Like in 2008 with Barack Obama, there is real frustration at Hillary’s arrogance for not taking seriously her only actual competition.
  • We’ll see how Nevada plays out, but right now it appears like another Iowa is about to unfold — a coin-flip that tells us more about Sanders’s ascension than Hillary’s dissolved stranglehold. Let’s not mistake ourselves: Bernie remains the underdog, and Clinton the favorite. The gap that separates them continues to shrink, and if trends mean anything there is every reason to expect a long, drawn out Democratic race.
  • Everyone I see on TV says that’s a good thing for Democrats.
  • Me personally? I just think it’s good for Bernie Sanders.

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