Picking football games (against the spread), volume vii

Hey! I have a computer that’s up and running again. I got a new MacBook, because MacBook is life and buying MacBook’s is just what I do. Now I can get back to the more important things in life, like picking NFL games for fun — since I’m definitely not betting again for a (little) while (probably).

Last week was the week of I Don’t Know What The Fuck I’m Supposed To Do, and this week is the week of Let’s Roll The Dice On Desperate Underdogs. Below are 10 selections, and the home teams are in CAPS:

1. Broncos (+8) over EAGLES (-115)

This is the most desperate pick of all the desperate picks, a desperate team that needs a win. Denver just changed their quarterback, so maybe that’ll light a fire in the offense and they can keep the game close. Ultimately, it might only take 17 points to win this matchup, and the Eagles will need to score more than that to cover an 8-point spread.

Really, though, I’m just looking for who can make the AFC West a competitive race. Right now the Chiefs (6-2) are runaway favorites to win the division; the Broncos (3-4), Raiders (3-5) and Chargers (3-5) are already 2 and 3 games behind in the loss column. If you wanted to bet on Kansas City to secure the division you would have to lay a whopping 8-to-1. In other words, you would have to bet $800 to win just $100. Every other team is at least a 10:1 underdog according to Bovada.

2. GIANTS (+4) over Rams (-115)

3. Bucs (+7) over SAINTS (-115)

Again, it’s desperation week. The Saints should win this game, but Jameis Winston and the Bucs offense can’t be bad all the time, can they? Broken clocks and what not. It’s a Division game, and I think Tampa can at least keep it close.

Surprisingly, the Saints came out of nowhere and actually have a good shot at winning the NFC South. This, mostly, because no other team in the division seems all that interested. The Panthers are playing uninspired, the Falcons are still in the Super Bowl coma, and the Buccaneers just straight up suck. But the NFL is weird, so I’m guessing this the week Tampa Bay decides to show up.

4. PANTHERS (+2) over Falcons (-110)

5. TITANS (-3.5) over Ravens (-110)

6. Bengals (+6) over JAGUARS (-115)

7. SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Redskins (-105)

I will not ride with Washington again this season. I’ve been burned, and I’ve learned my lesson.

8. COWBOYS (-2) over Chiefs (-115)

Vegas thinks this is going to be a shootout, something like 28-26 (the o/u is 54). I think it pretty much has to be, since the Chiefs can’t stop anyone on defense and the Cowboys strength, its running game, is Kansas City’s weakness.

The Chiefs have no serious competition in the AFC West at the moment, so they don’t need this game the way Dallas does. The Cowboys are already in the hole in their own division because the Eagles are running away and hiding. Look for Dallas to light it up and win a game in the 30’s.

9. Raiders (-3) over DOLPHINS (-120)

10. Lions (-3) over PACKERS (+105)

Overall record against the spread: 34-24-2 (58.6%)

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