Last week against the spread: 3-1
2021 overall ATS: 23-20-1
It’s a minor blessing that I didn’t blog any of my picks for Thanksgiving Day, as I managed to go 0-2 betting on the Cowboys (-7.5) and Saints (+6). To make matters worse, I chose the Cowboys in the survivor league that I’m in. So much for that. In other news I had a positive Week 11 and look forward to repeating that in Week 12.
The Chiefs are on a BYE week so for the first and only time this year I will get to sit back and enjoy a Sunday of football without my nerves getting in the way. So it’s all about winning my fantasy football game, and hopefully putting together a decent group of picks for you on here.
1. Tennessee Titans (+7) at New England Patriots
This is probably a square-ish type of play given that the Titans are without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, and are very likely to be without A.J. Brown. In other words, they are about a coin flip away from missing their top — and really only three — playmakers. Vegas is begging me to take the 8-3 team +7, and that’s exactly what I am going to do.
I don’t know what it is, but Titans head coach Mike Vrabel tends to play the Patriots tough. And I really like that last week Tennessee got embarrassed at home against arguably the worst team in the NFL. I fully expect New England to come out of this with a win, I’m just betting that it will be low scoring and ugly, and closer than the experts think.
Score prediction: Patriots 20, Titans 17
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
This one feels pretty easy. I get the better team catching points, and they lost to the Bengals earlier in the year on their home field. It’s a classic AFC North payback game. Again, don’t expect it to be pretty. But do expect the underdog to come out on top.
Score prediction: Steelers 26, Bengals 23
3. San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
I like both of these teams, and I like this to be a weird football game. I think San Francisco are kind of hitting their stride, winners of two straight games, while Minnesota are coming off an emotional 34-31 win against their biggest rival.
Score prediction: 49ers 27, Vikings 19
4. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
This is another one where I feel like the wrong team is favored. Miami’s strength on defense is against the pass, and Carolina has a quarterback that isn’t very good at throwing the ball. Seems to me like that is going to make for a situation where the Panthers are going to have to be fairly one dimensional, and in the NFL that’s a good way to lose football games.
Score prediction: Dolphins 17, Panthers 16