Picking football games (against the spread) in review, volume iii

I recently wrote about 10 bets I would have made if I was (still) betting on football. This post is to take account of those picks.

1. Patriots (-6) over Bucs

Actual score: Patriots 19, Bucs 14

Outcome: Loss

2. Patriots/Bucs under 55.5

Actual score: 19-14 (33 total points)

Outcome: Win

3. Bengals (-3) over Bills

Actual score: Bengals 20, Bills 16

Outcome: Win

4. Bengals/Bills over 39.5

Actual score: 20-16 (36 total points)

Outcome: Loss

5. Packers (+1.5) over Cowboys

Actual score: Packers 35, Cowboys 31

Outcome: Win

6. Packers/Cowboys over 52.5

Actual score: 35-31 (66 total points)

Outcome: Win

7. Seahawks (+1) over Rams

Actual score: Seahawks 16, Rams 10

Outcome: Win

8. Seahawks/Rams under 47.5

Actual score: 16-10 (26 total points)

Outcome: Win

9. Chiefs (-1.5) over Texans

Actual score: Chiefs 42, Texans 34

Outcome: Win

10. Chiefs/Texans under 45.5

Actual score: 42-34 (76 total points)

Outcome: Loss

Volume iii record: 7-3

Overall record against the spread: 18-12 (60%)


I switched things up a bit this week, picking only NFL games. The good news is, with the exception of two points in the New England game, I picked all the winners correctly. Kansas City (-1.5) covered; Cincinnati (-3) covered by a point; Green Bay (+1.5) and Seattle (+1) didn’t need the points.

From that standpoint it was a predictable week. I lost two over/under bets, including the Chiefs game that went WAY over. So, really, if we are getting super technical then I went 4-1 against the spread and 3-2 in the point totals. That’s not bad at all.

This wasn’t an easy week to pick football games. My elimination pool selection was the Steelers — who were the biggest favorite this week at -8.5 at home against the Jaguars — and they got annihilated 30-9 by Jacksonville. So I can kiss that money goodbye.

I’m still stuck in this weird place where I don’t know who is good and who isn’t. The Chiefs are 5-0, so that’s nice. Besides them the AFC is a wasteland of average-looking teams who look great one week and awful the next.

The NFC is kind of a trip as well. The Packers are going to be there at the end, even though I’m not quite sure where “there” is. Are they going to finish 11-5 or 9-7?

The Panthers have come on strong the last two weeks, beating both the Patriots (who were 2-1 at the time) and Lions (who were 3-1 entering today) on the road. Next week they play the 4-1 Eagles, whose only loss came on the road versus the undefeated Chiefs. The Vegas line for that game hasn’t been released but I’m inclined to roll with Carolina if they are in the neighborhood of -3.5.

Aside from that, a 7-3 record in a random NFL week is something I’m happy with. In three weeks (or volumes, I guess) I have yet to finish with a sub-.500 mark.

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