Picking football games (against the spread) in review, volume iv

I recently wrote about 10 bets I would have made if I was (still) betting on football. This post is to take account of those picks.

1. Panthers (-3) over Eagles

Actual score: Eagles 28, Panthers 23

Outcome: Loss

2. Eagles/Panthers over 46.5

Actual score: 28-23 (51 total points)

Outcome: Win

3. Saints (-4) over Lions

Actual score: Saints 52, Lions 38

Outcome: Win

4. Lions/Saints over 51

Actual score: 52-38 (90 total points)

Outcome: Win

5. Steelers (+4.5) over Chiefs

Actual score: Steelers 19, Chiefs 13

Outcome: Win

6. Steelers/Chiefs over 46

Actual score: 19-13 (32 total points)

Outcome: Loss

7. Rams (+2.5) over Jaguars

Actual score: Rams 27, Jaguars 17

Outcome: Win 

8. Dolphins (+11) over Falcons

Actual score: Dolphins 20, Falcons 17

Outcome: Win

9. Jets (+10) over Patriots

Actual score: Patriots 24, Jets 17

Outcome: Win

10. Texans (-10) over Browns

Actual score: Texans 33, Browns 17

Outcome: Win

Volume iv record: 8-2

Overall record against the spread: 26-14 (65%) 


As far as picking games is concerned, 8-2 is a breakout week. I went 6-1 picking games against the spread (with the lone loss coming in Thursday’s matchup) and 2-1 in over/under bets. That is fantastic.

I took three road underdogs to cover the spread (Steelers, Dolphins, Rams) and they all won outright. Didn’t even need the points. That’s pretty strong.

In the whacky outcomes department, the Falcons lost at home for the second time against a team they were favored to beat my more than a touchdown. I’m not a professional at this, but I would say Atlanta is not a team to be trusted moving forward. That should be a given.

The Chiefs are still probably the best team in the NFL, but their home loss did not come as a surprise. I wrote about how the Vegas line for this game was fishy, and it turns out it was the easiest money to be made in Week 6.

The Packers are sort of fucked now that Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. It’s really sad, actually, because Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL and Green Bay is going to be nothing without him. Despite my great week picking winners, that has to be the biggest loss.

Other than that, hitting on 65 percent of picks through four weeks is exceptional for me. I’m still not betting, but if you happen to read these and feel like making some extra bucks, you could do a lot worse than rolling with the bets I’ve laid out for you.

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