Picking football games (against the spread) in review, volume v

Last week I made ten football picks, and one four-team parlay bet, against the spread. This post is to take account of those picks.

1. Raiders (+3) over Chiefs

Actual score: Raiders 31, Chiefs 30

Outcome: Win

2. Panthers (-3) over Bears

Actual score: Bears 17, Panthers 3

Outcome: Loss

3. Falcons (+3) over Patriots

Actual score: Patriots 23, Falcons 7

Outcome: Loss

4. Washington (+4.5) over Eagles

Actual score: Eagles 34, Washington 24

Outcome: Loss

5. Broncos (+1.5) over Chargers

Actual score: Chargers 21, Broncos 0

Outcome: Loss

6. Steelers (-5.5) over Bengals

Actual score: Steelers 29, Bengals 14

Outcome: Win

7. Rams (-3.5) over Cardinals

Actual score: Rams 33, Cardinals 0

Outcome: Win

8. Giants (+6) over Seahawks

Actual score: Seahawks 24, Giants 7

Outcome: Loss

9. Cowboys (-6) over 49ers

Actual score: Cowboys 40, 49ers 10

Outcome: Win

10. Jets (+3) over Dolphins

Actual score: Dolphins 33, Jets 30

Outcome: Push

Four-team parlay: Vikings (-5.5) over Ravens, Rams (-3.5) over Cardinals, Cowboys (-6) over 49ers, Broncos (+1.5) over Chargers

Outcome: 3-1 (Loss)

Volume v record: 4-5-1

Overall record against the spread: 30-19-1 (61.2%)


So two things happened this week. I went to the casino and won a thousand bucks playing craps, and I invested 90% of my Roth IRA account into Ralph Lauren at about $90 per share. It’s down like 80 cents today.

Playing craps was fucking awesome. I took a girl to the casino for a couple drinks, but by the time I finished my first I was ready to hit the tables. I taught her how to play craps six months ago or so, so she was playing the Don’t Pass. Naturally I gave her a hard time about that, just to cury favor from the dealers and players already at the table.

I took out $300, and the dice table was back and forth. I got up a couple hundred then gave it back. With $50 left I told the dealers “I’m gonna go make some money playing blackjack and be right back.”

So I went to a nearby table, bet $50 and won. Then I stacked my bet to $100 and got a blackjack. The next hand I bet $75 and converted a double down, which was good for $150. I tipped the dealer a $25 chip and headed back to the craps table with around $400, where I was greeted with laughter because I had only been gone for like one minute.

That’s when we got on a pretty good roll. I started out with $96 across (including the point), and by the time the roll finished I had $100 each on the 4 and 10, $150 each on the 5 and 9, and $210 each on the 6 and 8. I left like $1,000 on the line, basically.

But in my rack in front of me I had like $1,500, which was helped nicely by hitting a $50 hard six (parlayed from a $5 original bet). The dealers must have made $500 or $600 off me in an hour. Every roll I was betting some longshot for them, and they hit a gang of them.

After that I gave a couple hundred to the girl I was with so she could play baccarat, which is extremely random for a young white girl. It seems like 75% of bac players are old Asian men. She lost the $200, but it was fun to watch.

So gambling has been on my mind again lately. Not sure what that means, but it’s happening. With how aggressively I play blackjack and craps it’s not a sustainable model to gamble with any frequency. But I made a few bucks, and I honestly can’t remember the last time I actually made money at the casino. But that’s why I only go every couple-few months.

On the whole, I’ve been pretty solid at picking NFL games this season. Aside from my losing parlay this week, and taking free money betting on the Titans over the Colts last week, I haven’t actually capitalized off picking said games.

But this is fun for me. I can’t go to the casino again for a while, for reasons I mentioned a couple paragraphs ago, and I don’t have intentions of throwing money away betting against the spread. I still get some satisfaction off picking games on my blog, especially since I’m well above .500 this season, even without the rush of having my money ride on the outcomes.

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