Last week against the spread: 3-1
2021 overall ATS: 13-14-1
The hierarchy of my NFL needs goes like this: (1) Kansas City Chiefs win football game; (2) Eric does well betting against the spread; (3) Eric’s fantasy football team, named “Half Chubb” for three years in a row now, wins. That is the list of my priorities. As of now, the Chiefs are 3-4, my ATS record (on here) is 13-14-1, and my fantasy football team is 3-4. Across the board it’s been a very average to below-average football season.
In about 15 years of playing fantasy football I have never once missed the playoffs. Amazingly, I have also never won the championship. The odds of making a 6-team playoff field in a 10-team league for 15 straight years is tiny; the odds of having virtually a one-in-six chance of winning the whole thing 15 straight years — and not — is even tinier. But these are the things I think about when my favorite team is sucking and my betting has been sub-optimal. Onward!
1. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
This one feels pretty easy. The Titans just got done beating the Bills on Monday Night Football, and followed that by pummeling the Chiefs 27-3 in a game that was supposed to be a letdown spot. The Colts have been trending in the right direction, having lost a game they should have won against the Ravens, whooping the Texans, and beating the 49ers on the road in a rain-soaked Sunday Night Football game.
These two teams know each other well; they are the only viable options in the AFC South. I am banking on Indy since Tennessee just got done beating arguably the two toughest teams in the AFC, and it’s just really hard to get up for three straight games.
Score prediction: Colts 27, Titans 19
2. New England Patriots (+4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Patriots just beat up on a really bad Jets team, and the Chargers are at home coming off a Bye Week. Everything is lined up for a comfortable Los Angeles win, it would seem, which is part of the reason why I’m bucking the obvious logic. Betting on New England is betting that their running game, which has been trending up for the last few weeks, is able to control the clock and keep Justin Herbert off the field. The other half is that Bill Belichick usually beats up on first- and second-year quarterbacks.
This pick is just a hunch, really, but I am currently at that stage of the year where keeping it simple and not overthinking these things is the better option.
Score prediction: Patriots 23, Chargers 20
3. Miami Dolphins (+14) at Buffalo Bills
Another simple one: the Dolphins (1-6) are not as bad as their record, and they gotta have some semblance of payback on their mind after the Bills whooped their ass 35-0 earlier in the season. I don’t think it will be very pretty, probably a game that Buffalo is in firm control of and Tua ends up throwing a garbage touchdown in the final minutes to cover. But nonetheless.
Score prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 20
4. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
Neither of these teams are any good, but the Lions just played the game of their lives in the Jared Goff Redemption Bowl against the Rams and I can’t see them getting up for this one. The Eagles, meanwhile, are still competing as if there is a season left to be salvaged (even though there probably isn’t). I don’t fucking know, just roll with the team playing against Detroit.
Score prediction: Eagles 33, Lions 17
Future Bets 