Last week against the spread: 2-2
2021 overall ATS: 15-16-1
It’s frustrating to be on the right side of bets and still end up losing. You take my two losses from last week, the Colts (-2.5) and Dolphins (+14), and see a couple bets that deserved a lot better. The Colts led 14-0 early on, were playing a team that had no business getting up for them, and ended up losing in overtime by a score of 34-31. The Dolphins stink, but they were within 17-11 in the 4th quarter before allowing a field goal and an interception, driving the final to 26-11. It’s the opposite of dumb luck.
But this is why I talk damn near every week about why the NFL is the best sport in the world. It’s because I have my feelings about certain things, and the NFL tells me point blank: “I don’t give a fuck.” It’s important, and frankly healthy, to be reminded of that every now and again. I yearn for control, and football exists to remove me from it.
1. New England Patriots (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
It just feels like a cheap price to get the Patriots at, especially if you are of the mind that New England is going to get stronger as the season progresses. The Panthers are a team I have both backed and backed away from, but my bet is that if this game was being played in a month that the Patriots would be favored by a touchdown. At 3.5, it’s a steal.
Score prediction: Patriots 26, Panthers 14
2. Cleveland Browns (+1) at Cincinnati Bengals
Here’s a fun one: the Browns are the better team, and they need this game more. That’s a pretty sweet position to be in from a betting standpoint. The Bengals have been one of the league’s most overachieving teams in 2021, and the Browns have been one of the league’s most underachieving. That changes this week.
Score prediction: Browns 30, Bengals 24
3. Denver Broncos (+10) at Dallas Cowboys
It just feels like high time that the Cowboys start losing some games against the spread. At this stage they might be the favorites to capture the one seed in the NFC, but this week they will have to figure out how to slug along with a super boring, low-variance team who isn’t going anywhere. I think they still have a competitive game in them, though.
Score prediction: Cowboys 24, Broncos 17
4. Minnesota Vikings (+6) at Baltimore Ravens
I don’t know, I just think the Vikings are going to play one possession games whether they are favored or whether they are underdogs. Taking the Ravens, one of the AFC’s best, at less than a touchdown at home just feels too easy. So I’ll go the other way and expect another weird one.
Score prediction: Ravens 30, Vikings 27