Last week against the spread: 4-0
2021 overall ATS: 19-16-1
Perfection is the word. Well, it’s the word to describe last week’s performance, anyway. As a matter of coincidence I ended up picking four road teams — three of which were underdogs — and with the exception of the Vikings (who lost in overtime) they all won outright. I can probably count on like two or three fingers the number of times I have had a perfect week on here over the last couple of years, so I have to appreciate it when it comes.
And, usually, a really good week leads to a really bad one. So here is to hoping we can make it two winners in a row! (I’ll be happy to settle for a 3-1.)
1. Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts tend to hammer bad football teams. Their four wins have come against the Dolphins (3-7), Texans (1-8), 49ers (3-5) and Jets (2-6), and all of those wins have been by 10 points or more. The added bonus they have this week against the Jaguars (2-6) is that Jacksonville won their Super Bowl last week, by a score of 9-6, against AFC powerhouse Buffalo. I can’t imagine they follow that up with a competitive output on the road against a Colts team that, even with a record of 4-5, still have aspirations of making the playoffs.
Score prediction: Colts 34, Jaguars 17
2. Denver Broncos (-1.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Let’s not get too cute here. The Broncos are a better football team than the Eagles, and this line suggests that Philly would be a favorite if this game were being played on a neutral field. I get that sharp bettors think the Eagles are undervalued in the market, but to me it’s a little absurd that a team expected to win 6.5 games before the season is less than a field goal underdog on the road against a team that was projected to win 8.5 games before the season — especially considering that both of these teams have basically been who we thought they were going to be.
Score prediction: Broncos 24, Eagles 19
3. Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers
These two teams, for whatever reason, have historically played tight games. I like that Russell Wilson is in his first game back off of an injury — which should give some juice to the rest of the team — and I also like that Aaron Rodgers just got cleared from the Covid list a day before the game. So you would think that a little bit of rust will be at play.
Score prediction: Seahawks 23, Packers 20
4. New England Patriots (-1) vs. Cleveland Browns
I don’t know what it is, I just have a feeling like New England is going to be there when all is said and done. The Browns have been one of the most snakebitten teams in the NFL this year, and the Patriots still seem relatively cheap in the market. Gun to my head I would probably take the Browns if this was on a neutral field, but the fact I can get the Patriots by less than a field goal at home just seems too good to pass up.
Score prediction: Patriots 27, Browns 24