Last week against the spread: 2-2
2021 overall ATS: 25-22-1
Can’t deny that I feel pretty good about my picks this weekend, so buyer beware. I followed up a 3-1 Week 11 by going 2-2 in Week 12, meaning I am primed and ready for another undefeated Sunday. At this point I’m just filling up space, so we might as well get the show on the fucking road and see what happens.
1. Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone in the world is talking about how the Chargers don’t have a good run defense, and that Bengals’ running back Joe Mixon is going to run all over them. Isn’t that obvious? Thankfully in the NFL there is this thing called “practice,” and maybe, I don’t know, the Chargers come out and decide to “defend” the run a little bit?
Score prediction: Chargers 31, Bengals 24
2. Miami Dolphins (-6) vs. New York Giants
The Dolphins are in pole position to be that one weird team that starts the season with a horrible record and ends up finishing around .500, meaning when everyone looks back on this season next summer and remembers how shitty Miami was they end up wondering “How the fuck did this team win 8 games?!?!?!” Also, the Giants are starting Mike Glennon at quarterback.
Score prediction: Dolphins 23, Giants 9
3. Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots
I know the Patriots are really good, and I know this game is going to be played in awful weather — which figures to benefit the running team (New England) over the passing team (Buffalo). But the other part of me thinks, you know what, Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East, and their entirely awkward and underwhelming season has been building for this game. I don’t know how it’s going to shake out, but I think laying less than a field goal at home for the Bills is an auto-bet for me.
Score prediction: Bills 25, Patriots 19
4. Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions
This may end up being a strange game — obviously, given the matchup — but I’ve got a Vikings team that came off a tough loss last week against San Francisco and a winless Lions team that gave everything they had to tie the Steelers in Week 11 and lose on a last-second field goal to the Bears on Thanksgiving Day. I’ll eat all these points and expect a blowout for the team that is still competing for the playoff spot.
Score prediction: Vikings 34, Lions 13