Last week against the spread: 2-2
2022 overall ATS: 2-2
1. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
This will probably be my deepest cut of the NFL season, so hear me out: last year the Dolphins embarrassed the Ravens, 22-10, on Thursday Night Football. I use the word “embarrassed” not because the score was particularly lopsided, but because at the time Baltimore were 6-2 and Miami were 2-7. The Ravens entered that matchup as massive 8.5-point road favorites.
Without that as context nothing else about this bet makes sense. Miami are clearly improved this season and Baltimore is more or less unproven given that they beat arguably the worst team in football, the Jets, in Week One. I am betting on quarterback Lamar Jackson and head coach John Harbaugh being petty enough to remember what happened to them last season.
Score prediction: Ravens 27, Dolphins 20
2. Green Bay Packers (-10) vs. Chicago Bears
Anyone who knows this blog knows that I hate laying a ton of points. It just happens that I view Chicago as complete bottom-dwellers and I think they are going to have a difficult time scoring enough to keep this game in single digits. I honestly believe the Packers only need to score something in the range of 21-24 points to cover this spread.
Given the over/under of 41.5, the implied final score is roughly Packers 25.5 and Bears 15.5. If I could set bet I would take the under on Chicago making it there, while on the other hand I think this is the game that Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense shows up in prime time to blow the doors off.
Score prediction: Packers 31, Bears 13
3. New England Patriots (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sometimes, shit don’t make no sense. The Patriots looked about as bad as they possibly could have in their 20-7 loss against the Dolphins last week, and the Steelers won 23-20 on the road against the defending AFC Champion Bengals. When I tried to guess the lines for the upcoming week — a tradition I practice with my two brothers — I actually had Pittsburgh favored by 2.5 in this game.
I’m reading a book about horse racing right now, and part of the handicapping process (sometimes) is being able to throw your hands up and saying Fuck It. It’s part of the logic of being illogical. If I am five points wrong about a spread, then I am going to bet in the direction that I am so wrong about.
Score prediction: Patriots 23, Steelers 17
4. Washington Commanders (+1) at Detroit Lions
This one hurts me because I actually root for the Lions to be good. The problem is, this is the first time in an unbelievable 25 games that they are not the underdog. I am betting on weird teams to be 2-0 and Washington just happens to be one of those. I hope Detroit finds a way to be .500, but right now I have a hard time picturing them being anything other than they have been.
Score prediction: Commanders 19, Lions 17