Week 8 NFL Picks

All game lines courtesy of bodog.eu as of 7:30 a.m. PST.

Jaguars (+16) over 49ERS

To say this is a terrible matchup for Jacksonville is really saying every game is a terrible matchup for the Jags. I will probably regret not starting Justin Blackman on my fantasy team, because Jacksonville will likely be passing a helluva lot once the 49ers put them in an early hole, but I’m betting San Fran goes into run-heavy mode by the middle of the 3rd quarter, allowing the Jaguars a chance to keep themselves within two touchdowns.

COWBOYS (+3) over Lions

This game has shootout written all over it, and although I tend to favor the home team in matchups of the sort, I like Tony Romo’s chances against an average Detroit secondary more than Matthew Stafford.

GIANTS (+5.5) over Eagles

I’m getting a banged up Michael Vick, a Philly defense that can’t stop anybody, and 5.5 points? I’m taking it and running away with an easy one here.

Chiefs (-9) over BROWNS

Jason Campbell? For real, Jason Campbell? Playing at home should be enough for the Chiefs, but when you factor in a weak 3rd string quarterback who couldn’t even hold a job down with the Raiders, I would have made the same pick with a far larger spread.

Saints (-11) over BILLS

God loves Thad Lewis because he went to Duke and yesterday Duke beat Virginia Tech, but the Saints are not the Dolphins. The Saints are arguably the 3rd-best team in the superior NFC, and at home they are damn near impossible to beat. I like Drew Brees to throw 3 or 4 touchdowns, and for this one to be a relative blowout relatively quickly. Still love you though, Thad.

Patriots (-7) over DOLPHINS

Tom Brady and the Patriot offense has been fucking up this year. The addition of Rob Gronkowski helps, marginally at worst, but this team is really looking for an outside WR weapon to step up. Not sure if this week suddenly changes anything, but I’m banking on a porous Miami defense to help relieve New England from their season-long slumber offensively.

JETS (+6) over Bengals

Remember above when I wrote about the Cowboys and Lions looking like a shootout? Yeah, this matchup is the antithesis of that. The first team to 16 points wins, and in spite of the overrated Geno Smith I like the Jets defense to put a number on Andy Dalton. A 9-6 score seems appropriate.

STEELERS (-3) over Raiders

This one is interesting, but also confusing to pick. I like neither team, but I don’t dislike them, either. Which makes it hard to pick. Per Advanced NFL Stats, both the Raiders and Steelers are hovering dangerously close to the median line as far as having an average defense is concerned — so that’s good — and they are each in that awkward range of having a below average, but not terrible, offense. In other words, it has the potential of being three hours worth of a slop-fest, which probably means it will wind up being a mild blowout in one direction or the other. To that end, I like Pittsburgh’s chances more than Oakland’s, but, really, I have no fucking idea.

Broncos (-12) over REDSKINS

Okay, I’m not a believer in Denver’s defense. But when you have Peyton Manning, Knowshon Moreno, Demayrious Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, who gives a shit about defense? The Redskins have one of the NFL’s worst defenses in their own right, and Robert Griffin III is quickly, to me, turning into one of those guys who seems like a budding superstar on the surface, but in all actuality could just be an overrated dude who leads a pretty bad team. We’ll see, I guess. Especially since they’re coming off a loss, Denver should win this game by at least 3 touchdowns.

FALCONS (+3) over Cardinals

How in the world is Vegas giving Matt Ryan three points against Carson Palmer? It’s just. There’s no way. They shouldn’t have. No Roddy White, no Julio Jones, and Steven Jackson is playing for the first time since week 2. But I don’t really care; I just can’t in my right mind come around to believing in this Cardinals team. Not even when they’re at home.

PACKERS (-9) over Vikings

Cristian Ponder. That’s all I got.

SEAHAWKS (-12.5) over Rams

It sucks, because if Sam Bradford hadn’t gone down last week with a season-ending injury, I would have loved taking St. Louis in an upset special. Seattle has a great defense — 2nd in the NFL only to Kansas City — however, like the Chiefs, I’m still not a firm believer in their offensive attack. Against a Rams team featuring Kellen Clemens at QB, there’s a good chance nothing will matter in this one. Once Russell Wilson gets his team on the board the first time, it’ll be over.

I’ll keep a running count from this day forward to show how I did. Until then, fuck it, it’s Sunday. I love Sunday.

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